Report based on the results of an online survey conducted via an interactive structured questionnaire. The link was sent to potential respondents from the database of the Kherson Community’s research online panel.
Research objective:
To explore how Kherson residents perceive the prospects and conditions for the return of people who left the city during the full-scale invasion.
Key Findings
Security remains the primary factor influencing the return of Kherson residents who left the city after the start of the full-scale invasion. For 48% of respondents, pushing the enemy back to a safe distance is the key military and political condition for return. Among those currently outside the city, this share is even higher — 54%.
In 2026, there has been a noticeable decrease in the share of respondents who consider the restoration of Ukraine’s control over its territories as the main condition for return — down by 15% compared to the previous year. Currently, 35% hold this view.
The top four socio-economic conditions for the return of Kherson residents have remained largely unchanged over the past three years:
– restoration of damaged and destroyed buildings (63%)
– resumption of full operation of all medical institutions (63%)
– restoration of industrial facilities (59%)
– reopening of preschool and secondary education institutions in an offline format (56%)
Public opinion on whether it is advisable to return to the community in the event of a ceasefire along the current line of contact is divided: “Yes” (“yes” and “rather yes”) — 37% “No” (“no” and “rather no”) — 46%. Support for returning is 10% higher among those currently living in Kherson than among those living elsewhere.
Among the main reasons why Kherson residents may eventually return are housing/property left in the city and family ties. At the same time, the importance of these factors is gradually decreasing. For example, while in 2024 housing was a return factor for 89% of respondents, it is now 79%.
Despite everything, 70% of Kherson residents currently living outside the community declare their intention to return. Of these, 40% are confident they will return, while only 4% state they definitely will not. However, the share of those settling into new places is increasing: between 2024 and 2026, the proportion of those certain about returning decreased by 16%. The three main reasons for not returning are security concerns, new employment, and better opportunities for children in their new location — and the influence of all these factors is growing.
Despite everything, the public expectations of the majority of Kherson residents for 2026 remain within a positive range.
In response to the question, “What are your overall expectations for 2026 on a scale from 1 to 10, where 10 is the most positive and 1 is the most negative?” 39% of respondents gave scores between 6 and 10, 25% gave a score of 5, and another 25% gave scores between 1 and 4.
32% of respondents believe in Ukraine’s victory in 2026, 38% expect the war to end along the current line of contact, and 29% believe Ukraine will join the EU already this year.
This material was prepared by the Community Foundation of Kherson “Zakhyst” within the project “Voice of Kherson Residents for Community Resilience and Recovery,” implemented under the “Impulse” Project by the International Renaissance Foundation and the East Europe Foundation, with financial support from Norway (Norad) and Sweden (Sida).
The content of this material does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Renaissance Foundation, the East Europe Foundation, the Government of Norway, or the Government of Sweden.
